Claude Codeでオッズ変動モニターを作る：claude-fable-5とCrazyrouterでJSON分析まで検証

Base URL: https://cn.crazyrouter.com/v1
Model tested: claude-fable-5
Task: odds movement alerts を、賭けの助言なしでJSON要約する

sample odds CSV
  ↓
Python parser
  ↓
decimal odds → implied probability
  ↓
movement calculation
  ↓
alert threshold
  ↓
Crazyrouter経由でclaude-fable-5に分析依頼
  ↓
JSON validation
  ↓
記事・チャート・監査ログ

generated/claude_code_odds_monitor_fable_20260613/
├── build_odds_monitor.py
├── sample_odds_movements.csv
├── odds_monitor_output.json
├── odds_movement_chart.svg
├── crazyrouter_raw_claude-fable-5.json
├── claude_fable_5_test_result.json
└── claude_fable_5_final_test_result.json

Pythonが変動を検出する。
claude-fable-5がアラートを説明する。
JSON検証が、その説明を使ってよいか判断する。

match,market,opening_decimal,latest_decimal,timestamp
USA vs Paraguay,USA win,2.20,2.08,2026-06-12T08:00:00Z
USA vs Paraguay,Draw,3.55,3.65,2026-06-12T08:00:00Z
USA vs Paraguay,Paraguay win,3.10,3.25,2026-06-12T08:00:00Z
Brazil vs Morocco,Brazil win,1.78,1.72,2026-06-13T08:00:00Z
Qatar vs Canada,Canada win,2.08,1.92,2026-06-13T08:00:00Z
Germany vs Curaçao,Germany win,1.20,1.16,2026-06-14T08:00:00Z

def implied_prob(decimal_odds):
    return 1.0 / decimal_odds

open_p = implied_prob(opening)
latest_p = implied_prob(latest)
delta_pp = (latest_p - open_p) * 100

if abs(delta_pp) >= 2.5:
    alerts.append({
        "match": match,
        "market": market,
        "direction": movement_direction,
        "delta_pp": round(delta_pp, 2),
        "note": "Large implied-probability movement; review news, lineup, liquidity, and data quality."
    })

[
  {
    "match": "USA vs Paraguay",
    "market": "USA win",
    "direction": "shortened",
    "delta_pp": 2.62
  },
  {
    "match": "Qatar vs Canada",
    "market": "Qatar win",
    "direction": "drifted",
    "delta_pp": -3.18
  },
  {
    "match": "Qatar vs Canada",
    "market": "Canada win",
    "direction": "shortened",
    "delta_pp": 4.01
  },
  {
    "match": "Germany vs Curaçao",
    "market": "Germany win",
    "direction": "shortened",
    "delta_pp": 2.87
  }
]

from openai import OpenAI

client = OpenAI(
    api_key="YOUR_CRAZYROUTER_API_KEY",
    base_url="https://cn.crazyrouter.com/v1",
)

{
  "model": "claude-fable-5",
  "messages": [
    {
      "role": "user",
      "content": "Return raw JSON only. Analyze these odds movement alerts for an engineering demo..."
    }
  ],
  "max_tokens": 1200
}

No betting advice.
Output raw JSON only.

{
  "summary": "4 significant odds movements detected across 3 matches. The Qatar vs Canada match shows the largest activity, with Canada win shortening by 4.01pp while Qatar win drifted by -3.18pp, indicating a consistent directional shift within the same market pair. USA win and Germany win both shortened moderately (2.62pp and 2.87pp respectively).",
  "alerts_count": 4,
  "top_movement": {
    "match": "Qatar vs Canada",
    "market": "Canada win",
    "direction": "shortened",
    "delta_pp": 4.01
  },
  "checks": [
    "Verify lineup announcements and injury news for all flagged matches, especially Qatar vs Canada",
    "Confirm market liquidity at the time of movement to rule out thin-market noise",
    "Validate data feed integrity and timestamp consistency across sources",
    "Cross-check movements against multiple bookmakers to confirm market-wide vs single-source shifts",
    "Check whether Qatar/Canada movements are mirrored (overround-consistent) or indicate a data anomaly"
  ],
  "recommendations": [
    "Treat the paired Qatar vs Canada movements as a single correlated event in downstream analytics",
    "Add automated correlation detection for opposing markets in the same match",
    "Log raw odds snapshots around alert timestamps for audit and replay",
    "Set per-market thresholds since a 4pp move may be normal in volatile markets but anomalous in stable ones",
    "Flag movements lacking corresponding news events for manual data-quality review"
  ],
  "disclaimer": "This analysis is for engineering and data-quality demonstration purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice, predictions, or recommendations to wager. Odds movements reflect market activity and data signals, not outcome probabilities endorsed by this system."
}

HTTP 400
Invalid request

one API key
one OpenAI-compatible base URL
multiple model routes
same validation layer

https://cn.crazyrouter.com/v1

cost per valid alert report

Pythonが暗黙確率の変動を計算する。
Claude Codeがパイプラインと成果物を作る。
claude-fable-5がCrazyrouter経由でアラートを要約する。
JSON validationが出力を採用できるか判断する。